Friday, March 07, 2003

The Intellect behind the War Brain?  

I stumbled upon this site for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and I think I may have found the human brain behind the war plans. In horror movies, it is the human brain soaking in formaldehyde, connected to electrodes, hypnotizing with thought control the participants of its evil intentions. Here are a few quotes from this document: An Attack on Iraq: The Military, Political and Economic Consequences, Scenario Briefing, by Anthony H. Cordesman:

"Scenarios must be based on somewhat arbitrary sets of independent variables that are logically grouped to illustrate the possible outcomes of the war."

Huh? And...

"Put differently, there is a nearly 100% probability that actual combat will not neatly conform to any scenario developed before the war, and that some variables postulated in one scenario will actually prove to be most important in another."

There's more...

"The convenient corollary of these uncertainties, however, is that many expert arguments over how to structure given scenarios are largely irrelevent."

Then this shocking conclusion:

"One should not be an expert in complexity theory to understand that arguing over the probability of an given mix of low probability events actually occurring in the postulated way is largely a waste of time."

Have we argued ourselves out of considering the consequences, eh Mr. Cordesman?

Then, to make matters worse, there is this worse case scenario:

"Protracted, military resistance takes place in Iraq. There is intense, urban warfare in more than one part of the country. There are significant casualties, collateral damage, major U.S. reinforcements required, Costs escalate sharply."

Then finally, this conclusion:

"There are no magic answers. Things can go terribly wrong and even in a few cases probably have a probability of 10%."

I think a better phrase for Cordesman and his scary types is Anti-Intellectual.