Thursday, March 27, 2003
U.S. Planning More Invasions, According to McGovern
The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that George McGovern says the U.S. is planning to invade North Korea and Iran:
"Former U.S. Senator and Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern charged Wednesday that President Bush intends to invade North Korea and Iran after finishing with Iraq.
"Even now, these wars are being planned by the current administration," McGovern said. "I'm positive, based on conversations with people close to the White House, that plans are in place for the next invasions."
Yikes!
"Former U.S. Senator and Democratic presidential candidate George McGovern charged Wednesday that President Bush intends to invade North Korea and Iran after finishing with Iraq.
"Even now, these wars are being planned by the current administration," McGovern said. "I'm positive, based on conversations with people close to the White House, that plans are in place for the next invasions."
Yikes!
# posted by scorpiorising : 6:25 PM |
Ellsberg "Masterful" on CNN
According to the ReachM High Cowboy Network Noose, Daniel Ellsberg, who was arrested yesterday in New York City during an anti-war protest, and was masterful as he took on the bumbling Aaron Brown of CNN:
"Daniel Ellsberg was interviewed by CNN a few minutes ago. Ellsberg was arrested yesterday in an antiwar protest outside the White House. When asked whether antiwar protesters were playing into Saddam's hands, Ellsberg indicated he wouldn't presume to know what Hussein was thinking, but considered it unlikely he was tuning in to CNN to make his decisions.
CNN's Aaron Brown, obviously flustered at the way the question was turned around on him, gamely reworded the question, asking if Hossein was trying to influence opinion by trumpeting the actions of the protestors around the globe.
Ellsberg, mentioning his own military service as a Marine infantryman, called that 'naive' and indicated that the tyrant Hussein was more likely busy paying attention to keeping his hold on power or on his own life than on NY city protestors. Getting assertive, Brown redirected the question to suggest that Hossein might think the protest movement could get Bush to back off the war.
Ellsberg was having none of. He called it 'absurd' and he indicated that the US administration was naive too, as they'd made predictions about Hossein that weren't holding up. Then he said that it's unlikely Hossein would think that Bush would listen to the minority voice in this country when he often didn't listen to the majority, such as the majority that voted against him in the 2000 election.
He continued, indicating that he thought it was a very good message the protestors were sending to the world, letting the world know that not all Americans felt this war was a good thing.
Brown quickly ended the interview at that point.
Without being wild-eyed or scruffy, responding articulately and cleverly, demonstrating once again that he's a real American patriot, Ellsberg was masterful. I'd pick him for my debate team any day of the week.
I could swear, just for a second, I could actually hear Michael Moore smirking. The moment was priceless."
"Daniel Ellsberg was interviewed by CNN a few minutes ago. Ellsberg was arrested yesterday in an antiwar protest outside the White House. When asked whether antiwar protesters were playing into Saddam's hands, Ellsberg indicated he wouldn't presume to know what Hussein was thinking, but considered it unlikely he was tuning in to CNN to make his decisions.
CNN's Aaron Brown, obviously flustered at the way the question was turned around on him, gamely reworded the question, asking if Hossein was trying to influence opinion by trumpeting the actions of the protestors around the globe.
Ellsberg, mentioning his own military service as a Marine infantryman, called that 'naive' and indicated that the tyrant Hussein was more likely busy paying attention to keeping his hold on power or on his own life than on NY city protestors. Getting assertive, Brown redirected the question to suggest that Hossein might think the protest movement could get Bush to back off the war.
Ellsberg was having none of. He called it 'absurd' and he indicated that the US administration was naive too, as they'd made predictions about Hossein that weren't holding up. Then he said that it's unlikely Hossein would think that Bush would listen to the minority voice in this country when he often didn't listen to the majority, such as the majority that voted against him in the 2000 election.
He continued, indicating that he thought it was a very good message the protestors were sending to the world, letting the world know that not all Americans felt this war was a good thing.
Brown quickly ended the interview at that point.
Without being wild-eyed or scruffy, responding articulately and cleverly, demonstrating once again that he's a real American patriot, Ellsberg was masterful. I'd pick him for my debate team any day of the week.
I could swear, just for a second, I could actually hear Michael Moore smirking. The moment was priceless."
# posted by scorpiorising : 6:16 PM |
Fanatical Apathy is Deeply Embedded
Deeply embedded in the duodenum of a U.S. serviceman, Fanatical Apathy gives us a unique perspective:
"March 22 - Dark. There are constant rumblings from the north. And the south. Pretty much, there are rumblings from all around my position, and I can no longer tell which are from the ongoing airstrikes and which are unique to Lt. Riggs. Field rations are in ample supply, and morale is high; earlier, I heard laughter from somewhere to my right, and Lt. Riggs apparently joined in. Lt. Riggs is a professional soldier, and the abrupt deployment and field action have not altered his steely resolve or his steady digestion at all."
"March 22 - Dark. There are constant rumblings from the north. And the south. Pretty much, there are rumblings from all around my position, and I can no longer tell which are from the ongoing airstrikes and which are unique to Lt. Riggs. Field rations are in ample supply, and morale is high; earlier, I heard laughter from somewhere to my right, and Lt. Riggs apparently joined in. Lt. Riggs is a professional soldier, and the abrupt deployment and field action have not altered his steely resolve or his steady digestion at all."
# posted by scorpiorising : 9:00 AM |
Will the Real George Bush "Please Stand Down"?
Tim Dowling in The Guardian Unlimited wants to know if recent appearances by Dubya are stand-ins:
"You may think the air of extreme witlessness impossible to mimic, but is the man on the podium the authentic Dubya, a trained stand-in or an animatronic lookalike? Tim Dowling investigates
Thursday March 27, 2003
"George Bush" addresses the troops in Tampa. See how cleverly the wires are disguised.
Yesterday President George Bush made his first public appearance since the start of the war, speaking to service personnel at the MacDill airforce base in Tampa in an obvious bid to reassure Americans and boost the morale of the armed forces. But how do we know this is the real George Bush?
Later in the day a man who looked and sounded like Mr Bush appeared alongside Tony Blair at Camp David, leaving intelligence experts to ponder whether a lookalike had been used, and whether the same lookalike had been deployed on both occasions.
It has long been suspected that Mr Bush employs a string of lookalikes for difficult or dangerous speaking engagements, some of whom may have had their ears specially enlarged for the task.
Most of those who regularly monitor Mr Bush's speech patterns believe that it was the genuine article who spoke at Central Command HQ in Florida yesterday, pointing to a characteristic tendency toward quasi-biblical phrasing - "There will be a day of reckoning for the Iraqi regime, and that day is drawing in near" - and an almost total absence of words of more than three syllables.
Other experts disagree, pointing out that these consistencies originate with speech writers rather then the president himself, and that Bush's main vocal technique - the bewildered pause - is only too easy to imitate."
"You may think the air of extreme witlessness impossible to mimic, but is the man on the podium the authentic Dubya, a trained stand-in or an animatronic lookalike? Tim Dowling investigates
Thursday March 27, 2003
"George Bush" addresses the troops in Tampa. See how cleverly the wires are disguised.
Yesterday President George Bush made his first public appearance since the start of the war, speaking to service personnel at the MacDill airforce base in Tampa in an obvious bid to reassure Americans and boost the morale of the armed forces. But how do we know this is the real George Bush?
Later in the day a man who looked and sounded like Mr Bush appeared alongside Tony Blair at Camp David, leaving intelligence experts to ponder whether a lookalike had been used, and whether the same lookalike had been deployed on both occasions.
It has long been suspected that Mr Bush employs a string of lookalikes for difficult or dangerous speaking engagements, some of whom may have had their ears specially enlarged for the task.
Most of those who regularly monitor Mr Bush's speech patterns believe that it was the genuine article who spoke at Central Command HQ in Florida yesterday, pointing to a characteristic tendency toward quasi-biblical phrasing - "There will be a day of reckoning for the Iraqi regime, and that day is drawing in near" - and an almost total absence of words of more than three syllables.
Other experts disagree, pointing out that these consistencies originate with speech writers rather then the president himself, and that Bush's main vocal technique - the bewildered pause - is only too easy to imitate."
# posted by scorpiorising : 8:51 AM |
Should We Be Happy?
From Seth Edenbaum of Unenviable Situation:
"I stand amazed at this country and its people. Should I be happy that they are now worried about a war the meaning and implications of which they previously ignored? "
"I stand amazed at this country and its people. Should I be happy that they are now worried about a war the meaning and implications of which they previously ignored? "
# posted by scorpiorising : 7:04 AM |
Wednesday, March 26, 2003
An Unenviable Situation's Thoughtful Commentary
Seth Edenbaum of Unenviable Situation on intellectuals and conflicted priorities:
"American intellectuals tend to speak and write as if they do not have conflicted priorities; as though admitting this would be accepting the presence of a sin. But since we all have such conflicts, the end result is that their writing and speech sound not clear and strong but thin."
As thin as the on to battle premise they stand on.
"American intellectuals tend to speak and write as if they do not have conflicted priorities; as though admitting this would be accepting the presence of a sin. But since we all have such conflicts, the end result is that their writing and speech sound not clear and strong but thin."
As thin as the on to battle premise they stand on.
# posted by scorpiorising : 5:07 PM |
Robert Frisk, independently embedded in Baghdad
Tompaine.com interviews journalist Robert Frisk in Baghdad:
Frisk has these observations
Then Fisk has this to say, brilliantly so, about the tradition of anti-colonialism in Iraq:
"And the truth of the matter is that Iraq has a very, very strong political tradition of strong anti-colonial struggle. It doesn’t matter whether that’s carried out under the guise of kings or under the guise of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath party, or under the guise of a total dictator. There are many people in this country who would love to get rid of Saddam Hussein, I’m sure, but they don’t want to live under American occupation. The nearest I can describe it- and again, things can change- maybe the pack of cards will all collapse tomorrow- but if I can describe it, it would be a bit like the situation in 1941-- and I hate these World War II parallels because I think it’s disgusting to constantly dig up the second world war -- Hitler is dead and he died in 1945 and we shouldn’t use it, but if you want the same parallel, you’ll look at Operation: Barbarosa, where the Germans invaded Russia in 1941 believing that the Russians would collapse because Stalin was so hated and Communism was so hated. And at the end of the day, the Russians preferred to fight the Germans to free their country from Germany, from Nazi rule, rather than to use the German invasion to turn against Stalin. And at the end of the day, a population many of whom had suffered greatly under Communism fought for their motherland under the leadership of Marshal Stalin against the German invader."
The war planners have tremendously underestimated the resistance they would encounter, obviously, in Iraq.
Frisk has these observations
Then Fisk has this to say, brilliantly so, about the tradition of anti-colonialism in Iraq:
"And the truth of the matter is that Iraq has a very, very strong political tradition of strong anti-colonial struggle. It doesn’t matter whether that’s carried out under the guise of kings or under the guise of the Arab Socialist Ba’ath party, or under the guise of a total dictator. There are many people in this country who would love to get rid of Saddam Hussein, I’m sure, but they don’t want to live under American occupation. The nearest I can describe it- and again, things can change- maybe the pack of cards will all collapse tomorrow- but if I can describe it, it would be a bit like the situation in 1941-- and I hate these World War II parallels because I think it’s disgusting to constantly dig up the second world war -- Hitler is dead and he died in 1945 and we shouldn’t use it, but if you want the same parallel, you’ll look at Operation: Barbarosa, where the Germans invaded Russia in 1941 believing that the Russians would collapse because Stalin was so hated and Communism was so hated. And at the end of the day, the Russians preferred to fight the Germans to free their country from Germany, from Nazi rule, rather than to use the German invasion to turn against Stalin. And at the end of the day, a population many of whom had suffered greatly under Communism fought for their motherland under the leadership of Marshal Stalin against the German invader."
The war planners have tremendously underestimated the resistance they would encounter, obviously, in Iraq.
# posted by scorpiorising : 4:15 PM |
Patriot Act 2, the sequal
Brace yourselves for a good, loud, verbal, boisterous, battle to defend the freedom that is our birthrite. The government is soon to try to stuff down our throats Patriot Act 2, while our own children are fighting their war, and strip away what semblance of democracy we have left.
http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0313/lee.php
http://www.villagevoice.com/issues/0313/lee.php
# posted by scorpiorising : 4:01 PM |
Boycott of American Goods is Growing
ABC has this report on the smashing of McDonald's windows, and sorry, no more coca-cola:
"Although the protests are mainly symbolic, waiters in dozens of bars and restaurants in Hamburg, Berlin, Munich, Bonn and other German cities are telling patrons, "Sorry, Coca-Cola is not available any more due to the current political situation."
The boycotts appear to be part of a nascent worldwide movement. One Web site, www.consumers-against-war.de, calls for boycotts of 27 top American firms from Microsoft to Kodak while another, www.adbusters.org, urges the "millions of people against the war" to "Boycott Brand America."
Consumer fury seems to be on the rise. Demonstrators in Paris smashed the windows of a McDonald's restaurant last week, forcing police in riot gear to move in to protect staff and customers of the American fast-food outlet. The attackers sprayed obscenities and "boycott" on the windows.
In Indonesia, Iraq war opponents have pasted signs on McDonald's and other American food outlets, trying to force them shut by "sealing them" and urging Indonesians to avoid them."
"Although the protests are mainly symbolic, waiters in dozens of bars and restaurants in Hamburg, Berlin, Munich, Bonn and other German cities are telling patrons, "Sorry, Coca-Cola is not available any more due to the current political situation."
The boycotts appear to be part of a nascent worldwide movement. One Web site, www.consumers-against-war.de, calls for boycotts of 27 top American firms from Microsoft to Kodak while another, www.adbusters.org, urges the "millions of people against the war" to "Boycott Brand America."
Consumer fury seems to be on the rise. Demonstrators in Paris smashed the windows of a McDonald's restaurant last week, forcing police in riot gear to move in to protect staff and customers of the American fast-food outlet. The attackers sprayed obscenities and "boycott" on the windows.
In Indonesia, Iraq war opponents have pasted signs on McDonald's and other American food outlets, trying to force them shut by "sealing them" and urging Indonesians to avoid them."
# posted by scorpiorising : 8:03 AM |
The Fall of the American Empire?
The dollar falling, debt rising, tax cuts for the rich, war price not yet in, but rising...could all of this signal the beginning of the decline of the American empire? Mark Tran, business editor for the Guardian Unlimited, explores this question:
"Bush fiddles with economy while Baghdad burns
Could a faltering dollar and global rebellion against its values presage the decline, and eventual fall, of the American empire, asks Mark Tran
Wednesday March 26, 2003
The war in Iraq is not going as smoothly as the Bush administration would like and the conflict is looking less and less like a walkover by the day.
Yet there can be little doubt that the US, backed by Britain, its loyal junior ally, will eventually prevail. The conflict will bring the US little glory, pitting the world's most powerful military machine against a dilapidated army, but when American and British troops enter Baghdad, the US will surely cement its status as a hyperpower.
But does the US colossus have feet of clay? It takes a brave soul to argue that America, the world's largest economy and by far its most potent military power, is about to go into decline, when it is widely perceived as a hyperpower. But Independent Strategy, a financial research company for institutional investors, has made the case in a paper that is making the rounds of big investment banks such as Goldman Sachs."
"Bush fiddles with economy while Baghdad burns
Could a faltering dollar and global rebellion against its values presage the decline, and eventual fall, of the American empire, asks Mark Tran
Wednesday March 26, 2003
The war in Iraq is not going as smoothly as the Bush administration would like and the conflict is looking less and less like a walkover by the day.
Yet there can be little doubt that the US, backed by Britain, its loyal junior ally, will eventually prevail. The conflict will bring the US little glory, pitting the world's most powerful military machine against a dilapidated army, but when American and British troops enter Baghdad, the US will surely cement its status as a hyperpower.
But does the US colossus have feet of clay? It takes a brave soul to argue that America, the world's largest economy and by far its most potent military power, is about to go into decline, when it is widely perceived as a hyperpower. But Independent Strategy, a financial research company for institutional investors, has made the case in a paper that is making the rounds of big investment banks such as Goldman Sachs."
# posted by scorpiorising : 7:53 AM |
New Blog: War Casualties
I've started a new blog to document the casualties, of all nations involved, in the bombings and battles as they occur. It is called War Casualties, and can be reached at http://warcasualties.blogspot.com. I'll do my best to access all sources, including Arab, although for some reason I have been unable to access the new english Al Jazeera. Why do this? I don't want the dead and wounded to be pushed aside or trumped by the idealogical and propaganda battles being waged on both sides.
# posted by scorpiorising : 7:39 AM |
Tuesday, March 25, 2003
"Saudi Arabia is Boiling"
Source: New York Times (via Khifafah.com):
Saudi Arabia on the boil
uploaded 25 Mar 2003
Saudi Arabia Seems Calm, but, Many Say, Is Seething
With war rumbling beyond its eastern border and violent antiwar demonstrations rocking neighbors to the north and south, many people here wonder how long Saudi Arabia can maintain its eerie calm.
"The atmosphere is boiling," declared Mohsen al-Awajy, a tall, angular Islamic scholar, distinguished by a long beard and white head scarf without the usual black headband. He says even his daughters are urging him to join Al Qaeda and follow Osama bin Laden.
"Our children are taking this a step further than us because they are affected by the injustice of the war led by the U.S.," he said, adding that he fears the mood could erupt into violence. "The Saudi street is fertile for any action."
Saudi Arabia on the boil
uploaded 25 Mar 2003
Saudi Arabia Seems Calm, but, Many Say, Is Seething
With war rumbling beyond its eastern border and violent antiwar demonstrations rocking neighbors to the north and south, many people here wonder how long Saudi Arabia can maintain its eerie calm.
"The atmosphere is boiling," declared Mohsen al-Awajy, a tall, angular Islamic scholar, distinguished by a long beard and white head scarf without the usual black headband. He says even his daughters are urging him to join Al Qaeda and follow Osama bin Laden.
"Our children are taking this a step further than us because they are affected by the injustice of the war led by the U.S.," he said, adding that he fears the mood could erupt into violence. "The Saudi street is fertile for any action."
# posted by scorpiorising : 4:51 PM |
Dailykos.com doesn't have good news about our war strategy.
Rumsfeld meddled with war strategy. (www.dailykos.com, scroll down to "What the experts are saying", March 25). As most Americans who are against this war, I am torn inside. I want the war to end quickly, to save as many lives as possible. Yet if the war does end quickly, which means it would be deemed a "success" by the chicken hawkes, they would be eager to test their mettle again to enforce their preemption philosophy. Is their a state of mind whereby I can let go of expectation in terms of the outcome of this situation, and, in the meantime, engage myself in what I feel to be useful right now, which is the dissemination of as much information as possible?
Dailykos and war strategy:
What the Experts Are Saying
This is Billmon, interrupting Kos's regularly scheduled programming to bring you this special bulletin.
A reporter friend of mine just slipped me something interesting. It's a background analysis of the situation facing the coalition forces in front of Baghdad, written by a fairly well known military officer and commentator who under the circumstances is going to have to remain unidentified, other than to say that he is fairly well known military officer and commentator. I was told I could post this as long as I carefully scrubbed out all personal references, which I think (hope) I've done.
This memo doesn't spill any secrets, but it is a thoughtful analysis based on Officer X's conversations with some of his colleagues -- all of whom are harshly critical of the war plan and Rumsfeld's meddling with it. I've added descriptions of some of the acronyms, and cleaned up the spelling a bit. Otherwise it is verbatim:
The "Shock and Awe" campaign failed completely. The traditional term of "Mass" has not been used by ground forces. Air power has supplied the mass, while the ground forces have suffered from "economy of force" being redefined. The march of 3rd ID (infantry division), while amazing, has left huge supply lines from Kuwait. These supply lines do not seem to be well guarded. The Apache attack on the Medina division was largely ineffective.
The 4th Generation War has begun with the fragging of the BDE TOC of the 101st by a Muslim soldier, and the use of irregular forces in Umm Qasr, Basra, Nasiriya and Al Najaf. Basra has not been taken yet, nor has Nasiriya.
The lack of ground forces, combined with Turkey's refusal to allow 4th ID to attack from the North, has allowed Iraqi forces to concentrate their efforts on the Euphrates River and the numerous axes of advance from the South.
If one or two heavy divisions were on the ground, the Iraqi OODA (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action) Loop would be lengthened significantly. Instead of the Allied three division elements attacking at once, there would be at least a somewhat equal amount of Divisions on the ground to tackle the 6-8 Republican Guard Divisions in and around Baghdad.
The race for Baghdad has great political value, yet there is no way that the 3rd ID and 1 MEF (Marine Expeditionary Force) can seize Baghdad and placate the Southern cities. There are UPI reports that the 4th ID, 1st CD (Calvary Division) and 1st Armored are on the way to Iraq...the question needs to be asked: Why weren't they there in the first place?
British forces have been under attack in Basra... latest news from the BBC, both Regular and Irregular forces.
We have not seen the widespread defection or surrender of the Iraqi Army. We have not seen the widespread throngs of Iraqi citizens cheering our boys when they head north, or when they seize one of the towns.
BLUF: (?) This war has been much more difficult than expected. I think we will see 3 ID take defensive positions 30-50 miles outside of Baghdad and wait for reinforcements. The boys must be exhausted. The fact that they have advanced so far without major maintenance difficulties (as far as we know) is a credit to the maintenance of their equipment. One question remains: What units used the pre-positioned equipment in Qatar and Kuwait, and why wasn't there any Heavy/Mechanized forces in theater as a Reserve?
As we all saw yesterday, the war has gone from a liberation (or so projected) and road march, to a forecast of very hard work ahead.
Key events occurred in the last 12 hours. X and I talked about the 3rd ID and what (courses of action) it might take.
One, it will continue a relentless drive to the capital, while the LOC ( line of communications) is threatened (a gamble). I admire this COA (course of action) and the fact that they did it without much air bombardment), but our technological dependence on long and large logistics is proving to be a critical weakness. More to come on what to do once the 3rd ID gets there.
By the way, the multiple thrusts by the SF in the western desert and by the projected airborne forces in the north are small distractions to the Iraqis as once infantry is on the ground, it does not move very fast, and even in Hummers, offers little ability to maneuver. Not having a multiple thrust from the north is allowing the Iraqis to mass, if not forces as they are open to air attack, then to focus their decision making cycle to one area.
Col. X brought up a valid point on how the armor has been spread among the Marines, and the 3rd ID tried to bring all their logistics instead of "racing" ahead with combat elements in order to reach Baghdad and resupply by air. This is the tactical solution seen through task organization which favors spreading the wealth among all formations (as did the Brits and French in the beginning of WWII).
The second COA sees the Coalition slowing its advance, as it might have done near Najaf, about 90 miles south of the capital. It will consolidate its LOC
Or, a variation of this course is moving from a movement to contact advance to a deliberate attack advance. A methodical approach by the 3 ID as it advances, phase line by phase line up the main highway--supported by artillery and massive air (CENTCOM admitted that more of its deep interdiction were pulled to provide close air along the LOC) with the 101st and MEF securing the flanks and rear.
Use of the 101st has been validated as well. The 3rd BDE of the 101st has set up a FARP ( forward arming and refueling point), likely where the Apaches flew from last night.
The results of the Apache unit attack last night might have validated the second COA. It appears that in an effort to test RG defenses, about 50 miles south of Baghdad, an Apache unit was sent forward of the 3rd ID (as was the theory of deep attack during the Cold War in Europe). We don't know what the enemy BDA ( battle damage assessment )is, but the Apache unit had to withdraw due to heavy AA fire, and lost an Apache (it appears to have had a soft landing, with the crew picked up by a Blackhawk), and it is now in Iraqi hands.
The attack shows the impacts of change of terrain. This part of Iraq is developed and green, cut by streams and canals. Visibility is sharply decreased with the ability to blend in, to camouflage greatly increased.
Anyway, the deep attack validated that the RG has strong defenses that are blended in with the countryside and urban areas (as pilots attested to this upon their return).
Additionally, the Iraqis are using information warfare through their broadcasts. This will undoubtedly strengthen their resolve.
The precise bombings are having the same effect, as the general Iraqi is not getting the word that these are to protect him and attacking the leadership. All he knows is that he and those around him are surviving the vaunted assaults from the U.S.
The final factor to consider before contact is made with the RG, is the condition of the 3ID. These guys have been moving and fighting hard. Not only do you road march and react to contacts, but for every hour of running, there has to be two hours of maintenance (track, suspension, air filters, cleaning of weapons, etc...). SO rest must be measured by 3-4 hours every 24 hour period. This has a culminating effect in combat in the way of declining decisiveness and motor skills...
Take it for what's it's worth. But it suggest to me this war isn't even close to over.
Dailykos and war strategy:
What the Experts Are Saying
This is Billmon, interrupting Kos's regularly scheduled programming to bring you this special bulletin.
A reporter friend of mine just slipped me something interesting. It's a background analysis of the situation facing the coalition forces in front of Baghdad, written by a fairly well known military officer and commentator who under the circumstances is going to have to remain unidentified, other than to say that he is fairly well known military officer and commentator. I was told I could post this as long as I carefully scrubbed out all personal references, which I think (hope) I've done.
This memo doesn't spill any secrets, but it is a thoughtful analysis based on Officer X's conversations with some of his colleagues -- all of whom are harshly critical of the war plan and Rumsfeld's meddling with it. I've added descriptions of some of the acronyms, and cleaned up the spelling a bit. Otherwise it is verbatim:
The "Shock and Awe" campaign failed completely. The traditional term of "Mass" has not been used by ground forces. Air power has supplied the mass, while the ground forces have suffered from "economy of force" being redefined. The march of 3rd ID (infantry division), while amazing, has left huge supply lines from Kuwait. These supply lines do not seem to be well guarded. The Apache attack on the Medina division was largely ineffective.
The 4th Generation War has begun with the fragging of the BDE TOC of the 101st by a Muslim soldier, and the use of irregular forces in Umm Qasr, Basra, Nasiriya and Al Najaf. Basra has not been taken yet, nor has Nasiriya.
The lack of ground forces, combined with Turkey's refusal to allow 4th ID to attack from the North, has allowed Iraqi forces to concentrate their efforts on the Euphrates River and the numerous axes of advance from the South.
If one or two heavy divisions were on the ground, the Iraqi OODA (Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action) Loop would be lengthened significantly. Instead of the Allied three division elements attacking at once, there would be at least a somewhat equal amount of Divisions on the ground to tackle the 6-8 Republican Guard Divisions in and around Baghdad.
The race for Baghdad has great political value, yet there is no way that the 3rd ID and 1 MEF (Marine Expeditionary Force) can seize Baghdad and placate the Southern cities. There are UPI reports that the 4th ID, 1st CD (Calvary Division) and 1st Armored are on the way to Iraq...the question needs to be asked: Why weren't they there in the first place?
British forces have been under attack in Basra... latest news from the BBC, both Regular and Irregular forces.
We have not seen the widespread defection or surrender of the Iraqi Army. We have not seen the widespread throngs of Iraqi citizens cheering our boys when they head north, or when they seize one of the towns.
BLUF: (?) This war has been much more difficult than expected. I think we will see 3 ID take defensive positions 30-50 miles outside of Baghdad and wait for reinforcements. The boys must be exhausted. The fact that they have advanced so far without major maintenance difficulties (as far as we know) is a credit to the maintenance of their equipment. One question remains: What units used the pre-positioned equipment in Qatar and Kuwait, and why wasn't there any Heavy/Mechanized forces in theater as a Reserve?
As we all saw yesterday, the war has gone from a liberation (or so projected) and road march, to a forecast of very hard work ahead.
Key events occurred in the last 12 hours. X and I talked about the 3rd ID and what (courses of action) it might take.
One, it will continue a relentless drive to the capital, while the LOC ( line of communications) is threatened (a gamble). I admire this COA (course of action) and the fact that they did it without much air bombardment), but our technological dependence on long and large logistics is proving to be a critical weakness. More to come on what to do once the 3rd ID gets there.
By the way, the multiple thrusts by the SF in the western desert and by the projected airborne forces in the north are small distractions to the Iraqis as once infantry is on the ground, it does not move very fast, and even in Hummers, offers little ability to maneuver. Not having a multiple thrust from the north is allowing the Iraqis to mass, if not forces as they are open to air attack, then to focus their decision making cycle to one area.
Col. X brought up a valid point on how the armor has been spread among the Marines, and the 3rd ID tried to bring all their logistics instead of "racing" ahead with combat elements in order to reach Baghdad and resupply by air. This is the tactical solution seen through task organization which favors spreading the wealth among all formations (as did the Brits and French in the beginning of WWII).
The second COA sees the Coalition slowing its advance, as it might have done near Najaf, about 90 miles south of the capital. It will consolidate its LOC
Or, a variation of this course is moving from a movement to contact advance to a deliberate attack advance. A methodical approach by the 3 ID as it advances, phase line by phase line up the main highway--supported by artillery and massive air (CENTCOM admitted that more of its deep interdiction were pulled to provide close air along the LOC) with the 101st and MEF securing the flanks and rear.
Use of the 101st has been validated as well. The 3rd BDE of the 101st has set up a FARP ( forward arming and refueling point), likely where the Apaches flew from last night.
The results of the Apache unit attack last night might have validated the second COA. It appears that in an effort to test RG defenses, about 50 miles south of Baghdad, an Apache unit was sent forward of the 3rd ID (as was the theory of deep attack during the Cold War in Europe). We don't know what the enemy BDA ( battle damage assessment )is, but the Apache unit had to withdraw due to heavy AA fire, and lost an Apache (it appears to have had a soft landing, with the crew picked up by a Blackhawk), and it is now in Iraqi hands.
The attack shows the impacts of change of terrain. This part of Iraq is developed and green, cut by streams and canals. Visibility is sharply decreased with the ability to blend in, to camouflage greatly increased.
Anyway, the deep attack validated that the RG has strong defenses that are blended in with the countryside and urban areas (as pilots attested to this upon their return).
Additionally, the Iraqis are using information warfare through their broadcasts. This will undoubtedly strengthen their resolve.
The precise bombings are having the same effect, as the general Iraqi is not getting the word that these are to protect him and attacking the leadership. All he knows is that he and those around him are surviving the vaunted assaults from the U.S.
The final factor to consider before contact is made with the RG, is the condition of the 3ID. These guys have been moving and fighting hard. Not only do you road march and react to contacts, but for every hour of running, there has to be two hours of maintenance (track, suspension, air filters, cleaning of weapons, etc...). SO rest must be measured by 3-4 hours every 24 hour period. This has a culminating effect in combat in the way of declining decisiveness and motor skills...
Take it for what's it's worth. But it suggest to me this war isn't even close to over.
# posted by scorpiorising : 2:41 PM |
Monday, March 24, 2003
A Noted Parallel between the U.S. Push for Supremacy, and the Boom/Bust of the Stock Market
George Soros writes for TomPaine.com, and explores the stock market as a metaphor for the rise and coming fall of George Bush. He predicts the bust of this push for supremacy, under the guise of preemption, and the sooner the better for us all. Question is, how much collateral damage to the American people will there be?
# posted by scorpiorising : 5:38 PM |
Pigs at the Trough
Our government is already dividing up the spoils of this war, according to Arianna Huffington, and guess who, you guessed it, Halliburton of Dick Cheney fame, among others, stand to gain 100's of millions. The wealth of this country is being sucked by this war, by the war profiteers, and we, the average tax payer, will be footing the bill. The war on the American Middle and Working Classes Continues.
Also, Huffington talks about the latest revelations regarding Halliburton when Dick Cheney was CEO.
We are being robbed.
Also, Huffington talks about the latest revelations regarding Halliburton when Dick Cheney was CEO.
We are being robbed.
# posted by scorpiorising : 4:39 PM |
Quote of the Day:
From an Unenviable Position, Seth Edenbaum has this thought:
"The fact remains that of all the shitheads following the war in this country, I know not one I would have anything to say to outside of politics. The war becomes something to fill a void in the American life. The purpose is to keep busy. 'Reflection' becomes a job or it has no purpose. It becomes impossible to cast that now quasi-reflective gaze upon oneself."
"The fact remains that of all the shitheads following the war in this country, I know not one I would have anything to say to outside of politics. The war becomes something to fill a void in the American life. The purpose is to keep busy. 'Reflection' becomes a job or it has no purpose. It becomes impossible to cast that now quasi-reflective gaze upon oneself."
# posted by scorpiorising : 3:15 PM |
More on War Strategy
Casus Belli makes this point about the coalition forces' war strategy.
"Look, casualties are inevitable no matter what warplan one adopts. But people must recognize that this warplan was selected by the Pentagon officials precisely because it was congruent with the Administration's political objectives in Iraq, not necessarily because it was the best warplan for minimizing the loss of American lives. In the end, securing the political objectives (protecting oil fields, minimizing collateral damage, emphasizing decapitation) may save American lives by laying the groundwork for a stable post-war Iraq. In the short term, as Peter Feaver put it in the Post article, mission accomplishment has been put ahead of force protection."
"Look, casualties are inevitable no matter what warplan one adopts. But people must recognize that this warplan was selected by the Pentagon officials precisely because it was congruent with the Administration's political objectives in Iraq, not necessarily because it was the best warplan for minimizing the loss of American lives. In the end, securing the political objectives (protecting oil fields, minimizing collateral damage, emphasizing decapitation) may save American lives by laying the groundwork for a stable post-war Iraq. In the short term, as Peter Feaver put it in the Post article, mission accomplishment has been put ahead of force protection."
# posted by scorpiorising : 3:05 PM |
General Frank's war plans and strategy is being questioned
Rueters is reporting serious doubts from "experts" about General Frank's war strategy. Folks, this doesn't sound good. (Scroll down and look to the left).
# posted by scorpiorising : 2:21 PM |
Conservative Infighting
It is interesting, that during this time of turmoil, with the war not going as well as expected,
one conservative pundit chooses to attack another.
one conservative pundit chooses to attack another.
# posted by scorpiorising : 1:53 PM |
Sunday, March 23, 2003
America's next Target: Iran
Don't know how reliable the info is, but the PakTribune is reporting that Iran is to be the next target of the U.S.,according to a CIA report.
Countries also named in the article "where replacement of government has been declared essential", are Libya, Cuba, and North Korea.
Countries also named in the article "where replacement of government has been declared essential", are Libya, Cuba, and North Korea.
# posted by scorpiorising : 5:07 PM |
America's War on the Working and Middle Class, continued...
This is how an illegal war is waged with your tax dollar. This is how the integrity of our institutions is further eroded.
Here I want to post in its entirety an article by the New York Times which demonstrates how the Bush administration is compromising intelligence gathering by the CIA, and its possible ramifications:
" INTELLIGENCE
C.I.A. Aides Feel Pressure in Preparing Iraqi Reports
By JAMES RISEN
WASHINGTON, March 22 — The recent disclosure that reports claiming Iraq tried to buy uranium from Niger were based partly on forged documents has renewed complaints among analysts at the C.I.A. about the way intelligence related to Iraq has been handled, several intelligence officials said.
Analysts at the agency said they had felt pressured to make their intelligence reports on Iraq conform to Bush administration policies.
For months, a few C.I.A. analysts have privately expressed concerns to colleagues and Congressional officials that they have faced pressure in writing intelligence reports to emphasize links between Saddam Hussein's government and Al Qaeda.
As the White House contended that links between Mr. Hussein and Al Qaeda justified military action against Iraq, these analysts complained that reports on Iraq have attracted unusually intense scrutiny from senior policy makers within the Bush administration.
"A lot of analysts have been upset about the way the Iraq-Al Qaeda case has been handled," said one intelligence official familiar with the debate.
That debate was renewed after the disclosure two weeks ago by Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that the claim that Iraq sought to buy uranium from Niger was based partly on forged documents. The claim had been cited publicly by President Bush.
"The forgery heightened people's feelings that they were being embarrassed by the way Iraqi intelligence has been handled," said one government official who has talked with C.I.A. analysts about the issue.
The forged documents were not created by the C.I.A. or any other United States government agency, and C.I.A. officials were always suspicious of the documents, American intelligence officials said.
But the information still ended up being used in public by Mr. Bush. Intelligence officials said there was other information, which was deemed to be credible, that raised concerns about a possible uranium connection between Niger and Iraq.
Several analysts have told colleagues they have become so frustrated that they have considered leaving the agency, according to government officials who have talked with the analysts.
"Several people have told me how distraught they have been about what has been going on," said one government official who said he had talked with several C.I.A. analysts. None of the analysts are willing to talk directly to news organizations, the official said.
A senior official of the agency said no analysts had told C.I.A. management that they were resigning in protest over the handling of Iraqi intelligence. At the State Department, by contrast, three foreign service officers have resigned in protest over Mr. Bush's policies.
The official said some analysts had been frustrated that they had frequently been asked the same questions by officials from throughout the government about their intelligence reports concerning Iraq. Many of these questions concern sourcing, the official said.
The official added that the analysts had not been pressured to change the substance of their reports.
"As we have become an integral component informing the debate for policy makers, we have been asked a lot of questions," the senior C.I.A. official said. "I'm sure it does come across as a pressured environment for analysts. I think there is a sense of being overworked, a sense among analysts that they have already answered the same questions. But if you talk to analysts, they understand why people are asking, and why policy makers aren't accepting a report at face value."
Another intelligence official said, however, that many veteran analysts were comparing the current climate at the agency to that of the early 1980's, when some C.I.A. analysts complained that they were under pressure from the Reagan administration to take a harder line on intelligence reports relating to the Soviet Union.
The official said the pressure had prompted the agency's analysts to become more circumspect in expressing their analytical views in the intelligence reports they produced.
"On topics of very intense concern to the administration of the day, you become less of an analyst and more of a reports officer," the official said.
The distinction between an analyst and a reports officer is an important one within the C.I.A. A reports officer generally pulls together information in response to questions and specific requests for information. An intelligence analyst analyzes the information in finished reports."
Emphasis mine.
Here I want to post in its entirety an article by the New York Times which demonstrates how the Bush administration is compromising intelligence gathering by the CIA, and its possible ramifications:
" INTELLIGENCE
C.I.A. Aides Feel Pressure in Preparing Iraqi Reports
By JAMES RISEN
WASHINGTON, March 22 — The recent disclosure that reports claiming Iraq tried to buy uranium from Niger were based partly on forged documents has renewed complaints among analysts at the C.I.A. about the way intelligence related to Iraq has been handled, several intelligence officials said.
Analysts at the agency said they had felt pressured to make their intelligence reports on Iraq conform to Bush administration policies.
For months, a few C.I.A. analysts have privately expressed concerns to colleagues and Congressional officials that they have faced pressure in writing intelligence reports to emphasize links between Saddam Hussein's government and Al Qaeda.
As the White House contended that links between Mr. Hussein and Al Qaeda justified military action against Iraq, these analysts complained that reports on Iraq have attracted unusually intense scrutiny from senior policy makers within the Bush administration.
"A lot of analysts have been upset about the way the Iraq-Al Qaeda case has been handled," said one intelligence official familiar with the debate.
That debate was renewed after the disclosure two weeks ago by Dr. Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, that the claim that Iraq sought to buy uranium from Niger was based partly on forged documents. The claim had been cited publicly by President Bush.
"The forgery heightened people's feelings that they were being embarrassed by the way Iraqi intelligence has been handled," said one government official who has talked with C.I.A. analysts about the issue.
The forged documents were not created by the C.I.A. or any other United States government agency, and C.I.A. officials were always suspicious of the documents, American intelligence officials said.
But the information still ended up being used in public by Mr. Bush. Intelligence officials said there was other information, which was deemed to be credible, that raised concerns about a possible uranium connection between Niger and Iraq.
Several analysts have told colleagues they have become so frustrated that they have considered leaving the agency, according to government officials who have talked with the analysts.
"Several people have told me how distraught they have been about what has been going on," said one government official who said he had talked with several C.I.A. analysts. None of the analysts are willing to talk directly to news organizations, the official said.
A senior official of the agency said no analysts had told C.I.A. management that they were resigning in protest over the handling of Iraqi intelligence. At the State Department, by contrast, three foreign service officers have resigned in protest over Mr. Bush's policies.
The official said some analysts had been frustrated that they had frequently been asked the same questions by officials from throughout the government about their intelligence reports concerning Iraq. Many of these questions concern sourcing, the official said.
The official added that the analysts had not been pressured to change the substance of their reports.
"As we have become an integral component informing the debate for policy makers, we have been asked a lot of questions," the senior C.I.A. official said. "I'm sure it does come across as a pressured environment for analysts. I think there is a sense of being overworked, a sense among analysts that they have already answered the same questions. But if you talk to analysts, they understand why people are asking, and why policy makers aren't accepting a report at face value."
Another intelligence official said, however, that many veteran analysts were comparing the current climate at the agency to that of the early 1980's, when some C.I.A. analysts complained that they were under pressure from the Reagan administration to take a harder line on intelligence reports relating to the Soviet Union.
The official said the pressure had prompted the agency's analysts to become more circumspect in expressing their analytical views in the intelligence reports they produced.
"On topics of very intense concern to the administration of the day, you become less of an analyst and more of a reports officer," the official said.
The distinction between an analyst and a reports officer is an important one within the C.I.A. A reports officer generally pulls together information in response to questions and specific requests for information. An intelligence analyst analyzes the information in finished reports."
Emphasis mine.
# posted by scorpiorising : 11:32 AM |
Pictures of Captured Soldiers
Our American brothers and sisters as Pow's.
Cry, cry, cry, and damn this war. Pray for their safe return.
Cry, cry, cry, and damn this war. Pray for their safe return.
# posted by scorpiorising : 11:02 AM |
America Wages War on its Middle and Working Class
On March 21, while working and middle class Americans watched their sons and daughters wage George Bush Jr.'s illegal war in Iraq, Congress advanced their own front in the war on the American middle and working class, by passing the second installment of the tax cut.
While 100 million dollars was cut from the tax cut plan, as a gesture towards fiscal sanity to pay for the illegal war, this is going to be a drop in the bucket as to what the true costs of this war will be.
While most sources say the war will cost anywhere from 80 billion to 1 trillion dollars, I would venture to say the true costs will wind up being somewhere in-between, although they could approach the 1 trillion mark, depending on the expense of occupying and re-building Iraq.
American companies are already lining up to re-build Iraq, including Halliburton. Vice-President Dick Cheney, ex-Ceo of Halliburton, continues to receive deffered compensation from that company in what is one of the grossest conflicts of interest ever carried out by a member of the executive branch of this country.
To be continued...
While 100 million dollars was cut from the tax cut plan, as a gesture towards fiscal sanity to pay for the illegal war, this is going to be a drop in the bucket as to what the true costs of this war will be.
While most sources say the war will cost anywhere from 80 billion to 1 trillion dollars, I would venture to say the true costs will wind up being somewhere in-between, although they could approach the 1 trillion mark, depending on the expense of occupying and re-building Iraq.
American companies are already lining up to re-build Iraq, including Halliburton. Vice-President Dick Cheney, ex-Ceo of Halliburton, continues to receive deffered compensation from that company in what is one of the grossest conflicts of interest ever carried out by a member of the executive branch of this country.
To be continued...
# posted by scorpiorising : 9:51 AM |
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